Otago Climate Change Risk Assessment 

Risks

Risk rating* (highest per category)

Present

2040

2090

E1

Risks to the livestock farming sector from climate change hazards including drought, increased fire weather, inland flooding, and increased landslides

M

H

E

E2

Risks to horticulture and viticulture from climate change hazards including temperature, drought, changing rainfall patterns and extreme weather

M

H

E

E3

Risks to the forestry sector from climate change hazards including temperature, drought, fire and extreme weather

L

M

E

E4

Risks to the fisheries and aquaculture sector from climate change hazards including marine water temperature and water quality

L

M

E

E5

Risks to primary sector supply chains from climate change hazards including inland flooding, coastal flooding and increased landslides

M

H

E

E6

Risks to cost of doing business from climate change hazards including coastal and inland flooding, landslides, and extreme events

M

H

E

E7

Risks to the tourism sector from climate change hazards including higher temperatures, reduced snow and ice, inland and coastal flooding, landslides and erosion

M

H

E

Risks

Risk rating* (highest per category)

Present

2040

2090

B1

Risk to buildings and open spaces from climate change hazards including inland and coastal flooding, coastal erosion, and sea level rise and salinity stress

H

E

E

B2

Risk to flood management schemes from inland and coastal flooding, and sea level rise and salinity stress

M

E

E

B3

Risk to water supply infrastructure and irrigation systems due to drought, fire weather, flooding and sea level rise and salinity stress

H

E

E

B4

Risk to stormwater and wastewater networks from increased temperature, sea level rise and salinity stress, extreme weather events and flooding

H

H

E

B5

Risks to linear transport (roads and rail) from flooding, coastal erosion, extreme weather events and landslides

M

E

E

B6

Risk to airports and ports from flooding and extreme weather events

M

E

E

B7

Risk to solid waste (landfills and contaminated sites) to flooding and sea level rise and salinity stress

M

E

E

B8

Risks to electricity (generation, transmission and distribution) networks from changes in rainfall, extreme weather events and flooding

M

H

E

B9

Risks to telecommunications infrastructure due to sea level rise and salinity stress and extreme weather events

L

M

H

Risks

Local vs central government influence

G1

Risk that existing planning, decision making, and legislative frameworks are inadequate for responding to long-term climate change risks and result in maladaptive responses, and potential liability.

Combination of local and central influence

G2

Risk of local authorities lacking capacity to effectively respond to climate change.

Local direct influence

G3

Risk that the national, regional and local governance/institutional structures for managing climate change are inadequate.

Combination of local and central influence

G4

Risk that a low level of community awareness and engagement hinders communication of climate risk and uncertainty, and leads to de-prioritisation.

Local direct influence

G5

Risk that climate change will result in increasing damage costs, with insufficient financing for adaptation and risk reduction.

Combination of local and central influence

G6

Risk that public services will be impacted by climate change.

Combination of local and central influence

Risks

Risk rating* (highest per category)

Present

2040

2090

N1

Risks to the terrestrial ecosystems from increasing temperatures, changes in rainfall and reduced snow and ice

H

E

E

N2

Risks to the freshwater (rivers and lakes) ecosystems from increasing temperatures and extreme weather events

M

H

E

N3

Risks to the coastal and marine ecosystems from climate change hazards including ocean acidification and marine heatwaves

L

H

E

N4

Risks to coastal, inland and alpine wetland ecosystems from drought, higher temperatures, changes in rainfall and reduced snow and ice

H

E

E

N5

Risks to Otago water quality and quantity from changes in rainfall, higher temperatures, flooding, drought and reduced snow and ice

M

E

E

N6

Risks to native ecosystems posed by increasing threats from invasive plants, pests and disease due to climate change

M

M

E