El Niño sees an increase in ocean temperature, this can cause extreme weather conditions (from potential droughts on [name part of otago strongly effected] lowlands to intense rainfall and flooding [name part of otago strongly effected] mountainous areas).

La Niña sees an increase in ocean temperature, this can cause extreme weather conditions (from potential droughts on [name part of otago strongly effected] lowlands to intense rainfall and flooding [name part of otago strongly effected] mountainous areas).

Why do you declare them so early?

ORC works with people all over Otago who are strongly effected by weather events. While dry summers and wet winters are a normal part of the weather cycle, the extreme weather events that can be cause by El Niño and La Niña conditions require long term planning.

For farmers this may look like arranging additional feed or planning for water restrictions.

For those in emergency management this may including being ...

Other areas effected include hydropower management... 

While stronger El Niño or La Niña conditions are indicators of an increased likelihood of a weather event, they are only indicators to be aware of, not a certainty. For holidaymakers changing plans based around weather predictions this can be frustrating when the weather event didn't happen as suggested, for those who need to manage long term feed/water for stock the advance warning is an essential part of planning.  

Good layout: https://www.es.govt.nz/community/get-weather-ready

Get weather ready

A Super El Niño’ system is developing with colder, windier, and wetter than average weather forecast for Southland from July – conditions that are likely to persist through spring and intensify into summer.

What is a ‘Super El Niño’?

 

What could this mean for Southland?

El Niño is likely to bring more rain to Southland, parts of Otago, and western areas of the South Island, while much of the rest of the country may be drier than usual.

How have previous El Niño events played out?

  • The 1982-83 El Niño in Southland resulted in cold, wet and windy conditions as an extended spring.
  • The 1997-98 El Niño triggered widespread drought nationwide, and was the strongest since 1950.
  • The 2015-2016 El Niño contributed to severe drought in north Canterbury

What can you do?

Related pages

Support services – If you need help, check out the details on some support services and agencies - here

Maps and data - Check for Southland rainfall levels, river levels, maps and lots of other environmental information. here

Flood warning - Keep an eye on Southland’s Flood Warning information – here

Land management advice - Check out the land management page for tips and advice on winter grazing, nutrient management and more - here

Air quality - Check out Southland’s air quality – here

Our changing climate – information and resources – here

https://niwa.co.nz/climate-and-weather/seasonal-climate-outlook 

Our seasonal climate outlooks provide air temperature, rainfall, soil moisture and river flow predictions for the coming season.

 

 

https://shelterbox.org.nz/disasters-explained/el-nino/ 

The ENSO is a change in the temperatures and weather in the Pacific Ocean around the equator. It is split into three different phases – a neutral state, La Niña (a cooling state), and El Niño (a warming state). Of the three, it is El Niño that tends to make the headlines for the amount of disruption it can cause.