South Dunedin Future programme manager Jonathan Rowe says a technical assessment process has narrowed the initial list of seven potential adaptation futures for South Dunedin to a shortlist of three: 

• Future 3 (Elevating land and pumping water);
• Future 4 (Waterways and wetlands); and
• Future 5 (Waterways and raised land).

Details of the three shortlisted futures and how they were determined are outlined in a paper being presented to both Dunedin City Council and Otago Regional Council next week.

Mr Rowe says a detailed assessment was undertaken to determine the shortlist. This assessment considered community feedback from earlier this year, as well as a range of technical and socio-economic factors, such as engineering, urban design, and community wellbeing. The three shortlisted futures were considered the most suitable for South Dunedin over the next 100 years.

“There’s no quick or easy solution. To get the best result, it’s important that we assess options carefully. Over the next few months, we’ll look at each of the three shortlisted futures in depth. We’ll assess the risks, costs, timeframes involved in each, and determine the location and scale of the different interventions. This will look at things such as where and when a wetland would be most effective, what complementary infrastructure will be needed to reduce flood risk, and where or when we should consider managed retreat.”

“Through robust analysis, we were able to determine that futures 1 (status quo) and 2 (pumps and pipes) may be beneficial in the shorter term, but they would be less effective long term. Meanwhile, futures 6 (relocation to raised land) and 7 (large-scale retreat) are likely to need long lead-in times, but could be useful options in the very long term – beyond 2100.”

Mr Rowe says that infrastructure is likely to play a key role in all potential futures. The DCC’s capital work programme will complement the South Dunedin Future programme, with the DCC planning a $60 million spend on wet weather flow management improvements, including in South Dunedin, over the next nine years.

The shortlist and full analysis of the three potential adaptation futures and pathways for South Dunedin is expected to be completed and presented to Dunedin City and Otago Regional Councils in early 2026.

Depending on Council decisions, it’s anticipated that a final plan for South Dunedin would be completed by December 2026.

Background notes for media

Earlier this year the community was asked for feedback on seven potential adaptation futures for South Dunedin. (Media release: Good response to South Dunedin Future engagement).

The programme is a collaboration between the Dunedin City Council and Otago Regional Council.

The overall aim of South Dunedin Future is to develop a comprehensive climate adaptation master plan for South Dunedin, and to do this in a way that is robust, transparent, and inclusive.

A summary of the seven potential adaptation futures for South Dunedin can be found on the SDF webpage.

The Council paper referenced will be presented to the DCC Council meeting on Tuesday, 23 September, and the ORC Council meeting on Wednesday, 24 September.