The natural hazards adaptation strategy for the Head of Lake Whakatipu area was endorsed by the Otago Regional Council (ORC) in May 2025.
The Strategy represents the culmination of an over five-year process that included technical investigations, collaborative planning, and inclusive community and stakeholder engagement. Implementation of the Strategy will begin in Mid-2025.
Not everyone has time or interest to delve into a large strategy, so we also have this plain language overview that introduces the main ideas of the Strategy.
If you want to explore the full Strategy content, the full strategy document will be available for download at the end of May.
May 2025
PDF | 13 MB
This summary document provides an overview of how we can manage the natural hazards for Head of Lake Whakatipu area. This document explains what the hazards in the area are, what the community views are, and how we can work together for future adaptation.
May 2025
PDF | 11 MB
This is the first iteration of a Head of Lake Whakatipu Natural Hazards Adaptation Strategy (the Strategy) and is the result of five years of work. The body of work is broad, covering hazards and risk assessments; possible mitigation and management; place, people, and economy; and feedback and input from community engagement.
As the landscape and climate change, we may need to consider big questions — do we do the same? Do things better? Do things differently? Our Future Toolbox contains possible responses that may help us adapt further as we face future changes.
Possible future responses are high-level concepts at this stage (not commitments). More information about detailed costs, benefits and risks would be required to inform future decision making.
Over time we will review, adjust, and improve this first version of the Strategy. We will also track progress on our actions and check in with the community.
Mana whenua, key stakeholders, and the community are encouraged to continue their involvement in implementation and future versions.
The Strategy is a non-statutory plan. It does not carry decision-making power or create any legal obligations. Other statutory processes, such as long-term plans, also offer opportunities for public participation and alignment. This highlights the shared responsibility in managing natural hazards in the area, now and in the future.
The Strategy has been developed using the Dynamic Adaptive Pathways Planning approach which includes the key following steps:
- What is happening?
- Study our changing weather and environment. Assess the hazards and risks facing the Head of Lake Whakatipu. Gain a shared understanding of the science and local knowledge.
- What matters most?
- Work with the community and mana whenua to understand what they value most about the Head of Lake Whakatipu area — including places, things, and other taoka (treasures).
- What can we do?
- Identify a long list of possible responses for managing risk and adapting to change. Evaluate the high-level pros and cons.
- Make it happen.
- Combine the existing responses that we rely on into a strong foundation and identify possible future pathways (covering different areas and time frames). Agree on signals, triggers and events that mean it’s time to put different parts of the plan into action.
- Create a plan.
- Capture everything in an Adaptation Strategy. Action what we can within current constraints. Keep the plan moving forward.
- Is it working?
- Our environment and climate keep changing, and we do too. Keep monitoring for success and for signals that it’s time to shift pathways.
- Improve things bit by bit.
- Check in with the community, review and update the Strategy regularly. Take advantage of new opportunities.
‘The Head of the Lake’ has a strong community spirit and self-organises to meet community aspirations.
We are facing natural hazard challenges and future uncertainties. The area at the Head of Lake Whakatipu is exposed to multiple natural hazard risks, and this risk setting is compounded by landscape-scale changes and a changing climate. There are no simple solutions.
We need to plan for the long term — to work together to build our adaptative capacity — to cope, adjust, respond and transform over time.
This Strategy will help us take advantage of opportunities and to better cope with the consequences now and in the future at the Head of Lake Whakatipu.
Our vision is a resilient and sustainable Head of Lake Whakatipu, where proactive natural hazard and climate adaptation enhance community wellbeing and safety and contribute to a flourishing environment.
- Make plans and recommendations that align with council strategies, policies and processes, and integrate with business-as-usual workstreams.
- Work in partnership with mana whenua, coordinate and collaborate with other agencies and communities with a common purpose to incorporate adaptation into what we do.
- Build connections across and between agencies and work together effectively across work programmes.
- Encourage and amplify existing good practice and initiatives.
- Point us in the same direction with a common understanding of the physical environment to build from.
- Continue to build understanding of natural hazard risks, uncertainties and opportunities now and in the future that come with natural hazards and climate change.
- Increase awareness around current and future natural hazards risks and impacts of climate change as well as effective adaptation responses.
- Build capacity around adaptation and support communities and decision-makers to take advantage of opportunities.
- Consider ways to incorporate mātauraka Kāi Tahu into the decision-making frameworks.
- Share new information as it becomes available.
- Lead and support others to actively manage and reduce risk to natural hazard and impacts of climate change.
- Support and enable community-led action and behavioural change.
- Promote community safety by managing and reducing risk from natural hazards and impacts of climate change.
- Strengthen communities, businesses and organisations so that they are well-prepared for natural hazard events and are better able to cope and recover.
- Lead the way and support others to increase the resilience of infrastructure, resources and systems.
- Encourage responsible management of resources and infrastructure that prioritises resilience, sustainability, and avoids maladaptation such as unintentional negative outcomes.
- Provide information for individuals, businesses and agencies to consider natural hazard risks and the impacts of climate change as part of planning and development processes.
- Support integration of traditional and modern local knowledge into planning and development of local infrastructure.
- Support and enable nature-based solutions and principles to adapt to natural hazard risks and climate change and deliver other socio-economic and environmental benefits.
- Integrate adaptation across councils’ work programmes to deliver natural hazards, biodiversity and wider environmental outcomes.
Development and implementation of the Strategy is guided by key principles.
- Take a holistic and long-term view to natural hazards risk management and adaptation efforts.
- Partner and collaborate with mana whenua, partner agencies, communities and stakeholders.
- Make robust decisions using the best available evidence.
- Be community-centred.
- Be flexible and adjust as we go.
- Consider co-benefits for adaptation efforts to achieve complementary goals.
- Promote fairness and equity for and between communities and across generations.
- Uphold Te Tiriti o Waitangi.
- Align with national-level direction and policies.
- Adaptation efforts should work with nature as much as possible.
- Be open and accountable. Ensure progress is transparently communicated.
- Consider cost-effectiveness and practicality to ensure that resources are used efficiently and that they reduce risks to what is reasonable, practicable and acceptable to partners and the community.
People provided many insights into what matters most to them at the Head of the Lake. Together, these values make up a set of community outcome statements that provide guidance for decision making now and into the future.
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- A community that feels supported and safe from the impacts of natural hazards.
- Residents feel at home, connected to their environment and supported by the experience of community.
- A beautiful environment and a feeling of connection with nature.
- Sustainable, functioning ecosystems.
- The opportunity to make a living.
- Be resilient and self-determining.
- Functional, resilient and accessible infrastructure, support services and emergency response.
- Heritage is safeguarded and accessible.
- A healthy community that promotes the wellbeing of all.
Some overarching community values emerged from all the feedback and engagement activities over five years:
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- Lifestyle and wellbeing — people feel safe to do their day-to-day activities. A sustainable, self-sufficient and resilient community.
- Environment — sense of stewardship and connection to nature — mountains, rivers, lakes. A place for wildlife and biodiversity to thrive.
- Belonging — a feeling of home. A strong sense of community where people support and take care of each other.
- Recreation — being able to enjoy recreation and links to the broader environment. A place for residents and visitors to enjoy together.
The Head of the Lake area is immensely significant to mana whenua.
To uphold the mana of kā rūnaka, it is crucial that mana whenua have authority over how their manawa (aspirations) for the future are portrayed and represented in this Strategy and in future actions.
Aukaha, as mana whenua representative, identified key values that offer a glimpse into a mana whenua worldview with respect to the area and the programme of work.
Ka Uara — core cultural values:
- Mana — mana whenua are leaders, influencers and partners.
- Mauri — protect and enhance the mauri (life force) of the Head of Lake Whakatipu, now and well into the future.
- Whakapapa — the traditional authority of mana whenua at the Head of the Lake is grounded in recognised ancestral rights which give mana whenua the mana and kaitiaki responsibilities.
Additional Kāi Tahu values include:
- Ki uta ki tai — interconnectedness of the whole environment, commonly translates to ‘from the mountains to the sea’.
- Kaitiakitaka — intergenerational and inherited responsibility and stewardship on behalf of future generations.
- Manaakitaka — expressing aroha, hospitality, generosity and mutual respect. Processes and decisions that enable positive social outcomes and support wellbeing.
- Mahika kai — ability to, and access to, gather or harvest resources. Ensure a healthy functioning ecosystem and sustainable harvesting practices.
- Wai Māori and Wai Ora — importance of protecting and enhancing the wellbeing
Mana whenua history
The landscapes of the Head of Whakatipu Waimāori (Lake Whakatipu) tell generations of Kāi Tahu stories and histories.
The arrival of Waitaha and Rākaihautu:
According to Kāi Tahu tradition, the Waitaha were the first people to arrive in Te Waipounamu (the South Island).
It is written that the Waitaha arrived in Te Waipounamu on a great canoe called Uruao, which was captained by Rākaihautū.
It is said that Rākaihautū used his famous kō (Polynesian digging tool) to form the major lakes of Te Waipounamu, which included Whakatipu Waimāori.
The genealogies of the Waitaha people can be traced from Rākaihautū through to his living descendants, the modern day Kāi Tahu.
“Ko Rākaihautū te takata nāna i timata te ahi ki tenei motu.” (It was Rākaihautū who lit the first fires on this island.)
Kāi Tahu taoka (treasures) cover the landscape; from the ancestral mauka (mountains), large flowing awa (rivers), tūpuna roto (great inland lakes), pounamu, and ara tawhito (traditional travel routes/trails), which connected kāika (settlements) and nohoaka (seasonal settlements) and mahika kai resources.
These all make the area immensely significant to mana whenua.
European history
The Head of the Lake community has a long history of resilience.
Scheelite mining, gold mining, sawmilling, farming and tourism have all in some way supported the small, close-knit townships of Glenorchy and Kinloch.
While many people are attracted to the area because of its natural beauty, the relative remoteness of the area shaped both the economy and the types of people who lived there.
Community members have long been characterised by a ‘number 8 wire mentality’ and self-sufficiency. The community have a strong sense of identity, cohesion and shares aspirations for the future.
Present day community and challenges
The Head of the Lake population has doubled over the last 20 years, with increased land-use and development pressures, and growth in the number of residents who rely on the road to Queenstown for their day-to-day lives.
Some residents may be less aware of the challenges that natural hazards pose in the area. Today, tourism is the dominant industry.
There are further challenges to support tourists and day visitors in the face of potential natural hazard events.
This area has a dynamic landscape with a wide range of potential natural hazard impacts, including a high potential for cascading hazard scenarios, where one hazard triggers another (e.g. landslides triggered by earthquake shaking). Landscape and climate changes contribute to future uncertainties.
Landslides are a common occurrence in the Dart and Rees catchments, due in part to unstable geology. Rainfall, earthquakes and changes in land use can also trigger landslides.
Side streams that feed into the rivers and lake have local hazards, such as erosion, flooding and sediment deposition. Some streams also have the potential for debris floods, which are a fast-moving mix of loose sediment, rock and water, and can be a very dangerous and destructive form of flooding.
By 2090, winter and spring rainfall are projected to increase in the catchments, with more intense storms and additional heavy rainfall days. Flood flows are also projected to increase in magnitude due to climate change.
The Dart and Rees catchments naturally supply huge amounts of sediment into the rivers. Active river channels and the delta are always changing in response.
Low-lying land adjacent to the Rees and Dart rivers is subject to flooding. Floodwaters can damage land, property and infrastructure, and interrupt local road access. Damage can occur due to erosion, inundation, and sediment left behind by floodwater.
Bank erosion is currently a threat to Kinloch Road, due to the ongoing westwards migration of the Dart River active channel.
Build-up of sediment in the bed of the active channels will continue. Future landscape changes are likely when the rivers break out of current paths, seeking new channels on lower parts of the floodplain.
River delta growth will continue. Areas of higher growth depend on where the main channels are discharging sediment and are likely to vary with future channel movements.
The effectiveness of current Kinloch wharf, Glenorchy jetty, Rees River bridge and floodbanks are all affected by sediment build-up.
Earthquakes cause ground shaking in response to rapid release of built-up strain along fault lines.
Numerous mapped fault systems are present in the wider area. Nearby possible active faults include the West Whakatipu Fault, located approximately 2 km west of Kinloch, and the Moonlight Fault, approximately 15 km east of Glenorchy.
The most notable fault in the area is the Alpine Fault, some 55 km to the nearest point from Glenorchy. The likelihood of an earthquake triggering at some point along the 800-km-long Alpine Fault over the next 50 years is 75%, with an 82% chance that the earthquake event would exceed magnitude 8.
Earthquake shaking can cause damage directly. Strong shaking can also trigger additional cascading hazards in some areas, such as landslides, and liquefaction and lateral spreading.
Liquefaction and lateral spreading hazards can occur when strong ground shaking during an earthquake disturbs ground sediments, causing them to behave as fluid. This can deform the surface of the ground, damaging buildings, roads and underground infrastructure.
An earthquake shaking hazard at Kinloch and Glenorchy is expected to pose the greatest risk to buildings and lifelines infrastructure through structural damage, compared to relatively few injuries or deaths.
All the lower-lying areas of Glenorchy township in the north and west are vulnerable to liquefaction, and significant and widespread land damage may occur from strong earthquake shaking. The potential for lateral spreading damage, such as land cracking, is highest near the lake edge and decreases with an increasing distance from the lake.
A credible science-based hazard scenario developed by AF8 to help us plan and prepare for an Alpine Fault earthquake:
- ‘Central Otago will likely experience 2-3 minutes of strong shaking in this South to North rupture scenario. The shaking will likely trigger snow/ice avalanches, landslides and rockfalls on mountain and hill slopes, making some roads impassable and potentially isolating communities in the area.
- Central Otago lakes could be affected by landslide-triggered tsunami, making it important for communities to know the ‘Long or Strong, Get Gone’ messaging.
- Thousands of tourists may be stranded in the area, unable to get home and will need to be looked after for days due to damage to roads. Some areas may lose power and telecommunication services.
The Queenstown–Glenorchy Road provides the only road access in and out of the Head of the Lake area for residents and visitors.
The community relies heavily on the road to access goods, services, employment, education, recreation, and health care outside the area. The road traverses many locations exposed to debris flow, flooding or landslide/rockfall hazards.
One example is Shepherds Hut Creek, where a debris flow event disrupted road access in 2022.
The Buckler Burn is very dynamic, with unstable terrain, a high sediment supply, and channel movement.
Over a very long time, Buckler Burn has deposited sediments directly into the lake, forming an alluvial fan landform and delta. The land under most of Glenorchy township consists of old deposits from Buckler Burn and Rees River.
In large floods, Buckler Burn may break out along Oban Street and cause minor flooding in the township area. Bank erosion is also a threat to a section of Queenstown–Glenorchy Road, which is near the current active channel. However, Buckler Burn debris flows are considered unlikely to be a threat to Glenorchy.
The present-day alignment of the active channel and area of delta growth is along the most southern limit of the fan. The fan surface may build up in the future and northwards migration towards the township should be anticipated.
The Dart and Rees rivers are very dynamic, with a high sediment supply, active channel movement and continued delta growth into the lake.
Glenorchy Lagoon and the existing Rees– Glenorchy floodbank provide some protection from smaller, more frequent Dart–Rees flood events. In larger Dart–Rees floods (20-year average recurrence interval and above), the floodbank is overtopped and flooding occurs in northern parts of Glenorchy township.
High lake levels can cause flooding of low-lying areas adjacent to Lake Whakatipu, including parts of Kinloch and Glenorchy (alongside the lake and floodbank).
Lake floods are often associated with a series of rainfall events close together, and the lake may remain at high levels for days to weeks.
Lake levels typically rise relatively slowly, with more time to respond than other sources of flooding.
Existing responses are an important part of the picture and go partway towards addressing the needs of the area. Our Action Plan will build and improve upon this base to increase resilience.
- Hazard awareness (societal, behavioural, and institutional)
- Emergency readiness and response
- Flood mitigation and protection
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- Flood monitoring network (rainfall and water level stations) and flood data
- Flood monitoring, forecasting, and warning
- Existing low-level Rees River flood protection by Glenorchy floodbank
- Existing river management (vegetation and gravel)
4. Road access — existing maintenance, reactive repair, and planned works
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- Glenorchy–Queenstown Road
- Kinloch and Glenorchy–Paradise local road system
5. Existing boat access at Kinloch and Glenorchy
6. Private property resilience
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- Household emergency planning
- Property and business insurance (adjust coverage as needed)
- Consider local risk and hazard information when property decisions are required (e.g. buying/selling)
7. Policy and planning — existing land use zoning, rules, and building controls
How are we planning to enhance and improve?
Existing responses are an important part of the picture and go partway towards addressing the needs of the area. Our Action Plan will build and improve upon this base to increase resilience.
Do the same? Do better? Do things differently?
Existing and planned responses are reviewed periodically to assess if they are still working for us.
Over time we might choose to improve, adjust or expand our current approaches. In the future we might reach a point where our current approaches no longer work well for changed conditions and we will need to consider ‘doing things differently.
Future challenges might require a different set of responses. That is why the ‘Future Toolbox’ includes both standard ways to manage hazards and innovative ideas.
Possible responses in the Future Toolbox are not commitments at this stage. Some possible responses fall outside the current roles and responsibilities of partner agencies.
There should be no expectation that the Strategy partners will or will not undertake any particular mitigation works.
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EXISTING RESPONSES AND IMPROVEMENTS IN OUR ACTION PLAN |
POSSIBLE FUTURE RESPONSES IN THE FUTURE TOOLBOX |
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Existing hazard awareness Societal, behavioural, and institutional changes (improve over time) when considering natural hazards and changes to the physical environment |
Hazard awareness (possible future responses) Review and accept residual risk for existing development |
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ACTIONS TO IMPROVE: Governance and collaboration
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ACTIONS TO IMPROVE: Advice, information and education (ORC)
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EXISTING RESPONSES AND IMPROVEMENTS IN OUR ACTION PLAN |
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Existing hazard mitigation
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Existing flood mitigation and protection
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ACTIONS TO IMPROVE: Information gathering and monitoring
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ACTIONS TO IMPROVE: Emergency Management
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EXISTING RESPONSES AND IMPROVEMENTS IN OUR ACTION PLAN |
POSSIBLE FUTURE RESPONSES IN THE FUTURE TOOLBOX |
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Existing flood mitigation and protection
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Flood mitigation and protection (possible future responses)
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Existing road access
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Existing boat access
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ACTIONS TO IMPROVE: Addressing impacts of natural hazards and climate change
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EXISTING RESPONSES AND IMPROVEMENTS IN OUR ACTION PLAN |
POSSIBLE FUTURE RESPONSES IN THE FUTURE TOOLBOX |
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Existing public asset resilience
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Public asset resilience (possible future responses)
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ACTIONS TO IMPROVE: Addressing impacts of natural hazards and climate change
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Existing private property resilience
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Private property resilience (possible future responses)
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ACTIONS TO IMPROVE: Addressing impacts of natural hazards and climate change 1. Provide information and support property owners to undertake property-level interventions to improve their resilience to natural hazards risks (ORC). |
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Existing policy and planning
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Policy and planning (possible future responses)
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ACTIONS TO IMPROVE: Policy and planning processes
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The Strategy uses an adaptive management approach, which aims to try to avoid unacceptable conditions by monitoring signals and triggers and using these to guide the timing of future decision making.
Adaptation thresholds for the Head of the Lake are based on what we have heard along the way. The selected signals and triggers weave adaptation into our everyday work and build on existing monitoring. Other signals and triggers may be selected during implementation of the Strategy and development of operational plans.
An ‘adaptation threshold’ is ‘what people do not want to happen’ (unacceptable conditions).
- Extended disruption to road access from Queenstown
- Frequent or severe damaging or disruptive events
- Loss of amenity and cultural values
- Lengthy displacement of people following extreme events
- Withdrawal of maintenance, decline in levels of service, and increasing cost of repairs
- Unaffordable or high-excess insurance premiums or withdrawal of insurance and bank finance
A signal is something we can monitor. Signals help us get ready to move to new pathways with enough time for decision making and implementation. However, surprise situations can still occur, and so signals are not a guarantee that an adaptation threshold will be avoided.
- Growth in costs to maintain and repair assets
- Lower level of service (e.g., due to delta growth, riverbed aggradation)
- Frequency, number, or impacts of flooding events reaching nuisance level (includes residential areas, roads, and agricultural land)
- Movement of active river channel towards high-value areas and assets
- Negative impacts on community wellbeing
- Insurance affordability or coverage
A ‘trigger’ is a point to review and make decisions on whether to change responses or pathways. Triggers that occur ahead of an adaptation threshold are the most useful for forward planning.
- Decision-making cycles (3-year, 10-year, 30-year) — the usual timing to consider partner agencies' priorities, level of investment, and business cases for changes. Public consultation is also required. These timelines are suitable for staying ahead of gradual changes. It is important that up-to-date analysis and reporting of signals feed into and inform the decision-making process. Signals can be considered both individually and in combination.
- Opportunities — keeping adaptation goals front of mind, looking out for opportunities to take action and make progress.
- Significant natural hazard event with unacceptable outcomes — an integrated, multi-agency approach will be required for effective recovery.
The current responses are implemented by agencies through well-established planning processes, such as long-term plans and District Plan.
Many of the possible future responses are also standard ways of managing natural hazards. Decisions on continuing and future investment are made by the agencies during regular update cycles for their plans.
Council plans typically have three-year cycles and cover 10-year (e.g. council long-term plans) to 30-year (e.g. council infrastructure strategies) periods.
Some possible future responses are out of the ordinary. Implementation of uncommon responses would require one-off, specialised planning, funding and governance arrangements.
If there is severe damage as a result of a natural hazard event, then it is likely that a tailored recovery.
This is the first version of the Strategy. Over time we will review and adjust to keep up with future challenges.
We already collect information on social, economic, institutional and environmental conditions, as part of our existing business practices. We will use this information to track changes and monitor how the Strategy is working.
Every six years (or earlier if there is an urgent need), Otago Regional Council will conduct a comprehensive review and work with partners and community to ensure the Strategy is updated appropriately in light of new information.
Between updates, we will track progress on Actions and report back through a variety of channels, such as our website.
